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(詳細はprospect theory. Normally a reduction in probability of winning a reward (e.g. reduce from 80% to 20% of chance of winning a reward) creates psychological effect such as displeasure to individuals, which leads to the perception of loss from the original probability thus favoring a risk-aversion decision. However, the same reduction results in larger psychological effect when it is done from certainty than from uncertainty. ==Example== illustrated the certainty effect by the following examples. First, consider this example: Which of the following options do you prefer? *A. a sure gain of $30 *B. 80% chance to win $45 and 20% chance to win nothing In this case, 78% of participants chose option A while only 22% chose option B. This demonstrates the typical risk-aversion phenomenon in prospect theory and framing effect because the expected value of option B ($45x0.8=$36) exceeds that of A by 20%. Now, consider this problem: Which of the following options do you prefer? *C. 25% chance to win $30 and 75% chance to win nothing *D. 20% chance to win $45 and 80% chance to win nothing In this case, 42% of participants chose option C while 58% chose option D. As before, the expected value of the first option ($30x0.25=$7.50) was 20% lower than that of option B ($45x.0.2=9) however, when neither option was certain, risk-taking increased. 抄文引用元・出典: フリー百科事典『 ウィキペディア（Wikipedia）』 ■ウィキペディアで「Certainty effect」の詳細全文を読む スポンサード リンク
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